Judging a team's quality by one 90 minute performance is like coming to an opinion about a pointillism painting after only looking at a single dot. Soccer has never been a sport blessed with a penchant for perspective, just ask Sabri Lamouchi. Still, after the first round of group stage action, there is at least some sense of how the tournament could shake out from here on in.
Expanded Format and Opening Week Surprises
This edition marks the expanded nature of the 48 team World Cup. Uzbekistan boss Fabio Cannavaro warned when reflecting on that change:
Maybe at the start you'll have some boring matches or too many goals in a one-sided game,
That prediction has largely fallen flat. Not only have there been few drab affairs, but some of the supposed minnows have managed to emphatically punch above their weight.
Switzerland, Spain and Portugal were all held to frustrating draws by Qatar, Cabo Verde and DR Congo respectively. Even Curaçao kept Germany level at 1 to 1 for 17 glorious minutes.
Disappointments Among the Favorites
While it may be a bit premature to discount any of the traditional giants after one scratchy showing, Türkiye was one of the major disappointments. Vincenzo Montella's side had been billed as one of the dark horses for the tournament and certainly appeared to consider themselves superior to Australia, who promptly made a mockery of Hakan Çalhanoğlu's public insistence that Türkiye was "more talented" than the Socceroos.
Brazil was another nation to disappoint, putting in a desperately underwhelming display against Morocco which left Carlo Ancelotti to surmise:
The team was anxious and there were nerves all over the place.
Should the Seleção remain as skittish against Haiti and Scotland, there is every chance that the controversial AFCON champion finishes above them in Group C.
Netherlands, Japan, and Rising Contenders
Ronald Koeman took an astute conclusion from the Netherlands' entertaining 2 to 2 draw with Japan: the hype is real. The Dutch boss scoffed:
You think that Japan's strength was over-exaggerated before the match?
Let's wait until the end of the World Cup to see who's right.
By the end of the group stage, the Samurai Blue could have proven its worth with a top spot finish.
Third Place Progression and Group Stage Standouts
The devilish aspect to this World Cup format is trying to decipher which eight of the 12 third place teams will find a way through to the round of 32. Not only is it a fool's errand, but it has major repercussions for the entire knockout stages.
Nevertheless, some sides performed admirably enough to suggest they would progress. Sweden notably thumped Tunisia, racking up a 5 to 1 win which may very well be enough to guarantee progress even if Graham Potter's side is expected to be picked apart by the Netherlands and Japan.
Ecuador and Senegal were also impressive in competitive defeats while there is hope that Scotland can end its curse of group stage exits. The local bars will certainly be rooting for the Tartan Army.
Even if South Africa can keep 11, or maybe even 10, players on the pitch, Hugo Broos's side will be heading nowhere but home if it continues to play with such a self destructive streak. It would be an incredible feat for Hervé Renard to lead this ramshackle Tunisia team out of the group stage on such short notice, but it may be a feat even beyond the white shirted miracle worker.
Panama's best hope of salvation was snatched away by Caleb Yirenkyi's 95th minute winner for Ghana while Jordan's legion of fans woke up early to see their side beaten by Austria, a fate which may yet follow them in matches against Algeria and Argentina.
USMNT Favorites to Advance
After spending so much of the buildup to the tournament lauding his side's chances, Mauricio Pochettino preached caution after a thumping opening night win over Paraguay.
Should the USMNT advance as expected from atop the Group D standings, the Americans could be eyeing a deep run through the rest of the tournament.
