The 2026 FIFA World Cup moves into a critical Group D test on Friday, June 19, when the United States faces Australia at 3 p.m. ET at Lumen Stadium in Seattle, Washington. Both sides arrive off multi goal wins in their openers, and a loud home crowd is expected for a matchup that carries betting, tactical, and knockout stage implications in the first 48 team World Cup.
Seven time NBA champion Robert Horry has spoken about hoping the 2026 World Cup can serve as a unifier. On the field, the immediate question is whether Team USA can keep rolling or whether the Socceroos can pull off another major upset.
Group D openers and the betting board
Team USA opened with a 4 1 win over Paraguay at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, a result that helped launch the legend of Folarin Balogun in this tournament. Australia answered with a 2 0 shutout of Türkiye in its World Cup opener, with Connor Metcalfe celebrating the Socceroos' second goal with teammates after finding the net.
At BetMGM, the Americans are listed as 165 favorites, Australia sits at +400, the draw is +320, and the total is set at 2.5 goals. Australia entered its opener against Türkiye as a +425 underdog and essentially stole three points in group play. The Socceroos also carried the worst betting odds to win Group D, a detail that shapes how they may approach a road date against the host nation.
Christian Pulisic injury looms over the USA attack
American attacking midfielder Christian Pulisic left after the first half of the USA's 4 1 win over Paraguay because of a calf injury. SICscore.com notes Pulisic has a history of calf issues, and he did not practice with the team this week. Calf problems can lead to more serious injuries, such as a torn Achilles tendon.
This is the first World Cup with a 48 team field, and the knockout round now includes 32 teams instead of 16. Between the expanded knockout picture and Pulisic's injury history, there is a 70/30 chance Team USA manager Mauricio Pochettino rests Pulisic on Friday. Bettors who follow soccer closely have pointed to load managing in group play this year because more knockout stage spots are available.
Load managing
Three of America's goals against Paraguay came in the first half while Pulisic was on the pitch. The expectation is that the USA offense will be less explosive against Australia if Pulisic does not play.
The underlying numbers behind both scorelines
The United States' opener looked dominant on the scoreboard, but the underlying numbers were not as strong. Team USA finished with only 1.42 expected goals against Paraguay and scored off an own goal.
Australia's 2 0 win over Türkiye was similarly efficient rather than overwhelming. The Socceroos posted 1.18 expected goals and possessed the ball for just 28% of the match. With that profile, earning one point by tying the United States on Friday would still represent a strong group stage outcome for Australia.
Fading the public on the total
The handicapping angle here is a classic fade the recent result spot, with Team USA looking sensational after its first game while Australia also banked a clean sheet win. As of Wednesday evening, 80% of the money at BetMGM was on the Over 2.5 goals. Even so, the Under is pricier at market making operations such as Circa Sports in Las Vegas and the offshore oddsmaker Pinnacle Sportsbook.
Look, I want America to win as much as the next guy. But, more importantly, I'm trying to make money.
Patriotism runs high for a home World Cup, but the sharper market look in this spot is Under 2.5 goals at 115 at BetMGM, with the public heavily on the Over while sharper books keep the Under at a premium price.
