Until 1966, goal ratio separated tied teams. FIFA moved to goal difference in 1970 and kept that rule until now. The shift aligns the tournament with UEFA, which has long prioritized direct results between tied sides. FIFA tested the system at last year's Club World Cup, where Flamengo topped Group D ahead of Chelsea after two matches.
Under the old format, a team needed a four point cushion over second place after two games to clinch the group. Now a three point lead can be enough if the leader has already beaten the team or teams chasing on the same points total.
Mexico have Group A after winning their first two games. They sit on six points, three clear of South Korea, with the Czech Republic and South Africa on one point. Even if Mexico and South Korea both finish on six, Mexico hold the head to head edge and cannot be overtaken for first. Mexico know they will face a third placed team in the last 32 in Mexico City.
Mexico could choose to rest players when they meet the Czech Republic next Wednesday. The Czech Republic may benefit from that imbalance, though they can only qualify automatically if South Korea lose to South Africa. With the best third placed teams also advancing, that dynamic could still matter late in the group stage.
Who could win their group on matchday two
For top spot to be locked after round two, the leader must win both games and either the other two fixtures in the first two rounds must be draws, or the first placed team must have beaten the side or sides on three points.
- Scotland will qualify as group winners if they beat Morocco and Brazil do not beat Haiti.
- The United States take top spot with a win over Australia as long as Turkey do not beat Paraguay.
- Australia can do so with a victory if Paraguay do not win against Turkey.
- Germany win the group with a victory over Ivory Coast if Ecuador do not win against Curacao.
- Ivory Coast will seal top spot with a win if Curacao do not beat Ecuador.
- Sweden will qualify as group winners if they beat the Netherlands and Japan do not win against Tunisia.
- Argentina take top spot with a win over Austria as long as Jordan do not beat Algeria.
- Austria can do so with a victory if Algeria do not win against Jordan.
- Colombia will seal first place if they beat DR Congo and Portugal do not win against Uzbekistan.
- England win the group with a victory over Ghana if Panama do not win against Croatia.
- Ghana will be group winners with a victory if Croatia do not beat Panama.
