Some of those fixtures would require little more than current group leaders holding their positions. Others depend on third-place permutations, favorable routes through the draw, and several rounds of the favorites behaving like favorites. Portugal vs Uzbekistan is among the live group-stage action feeding into that picture.
48-Team Format and Knockout Expansion
From 1998 through 2022, 32 teams entered the World Cup. The 2026 edition is the first staged across three countries with expansion to 48 teams. That pushed the schedule from 64 matches to 104. An additional knockout round doubled knockout games from 16 to 32. After the group stage, 32 teams remain in the field.
France, Sweden, and Saliba vs Gyokeres
France could face Germany in the last 16. One route to a different tie would see France win Group I while Sweden finishes third in Group F, qualifies as one of the eight best third-placed teams, and is assigned to the section of the bracket containing France.
Forecasting gives France an 83 percent chance of winning their group and Sweden a 67 percent chance of finishing third and qualifying, although allocation of the third-placed teams would still have to fall the right way. That result would put Arsenal teammates Saliba and Gyokeres against one another on the world stage.
Sweden's pairing of Gyokeres and Liverpool striker Alexander Isak has the speed and power to give France's center-backs problems. The Scandinavian side have shown how unpredictable they can be, scoring five goals against Tunisia and conceding five to the Netherlands. Against Kylian Mbappe and France's runners, that fragility could prove fatal to their competition hopes.
Netherlands, Japan, Brazil, and Morocco
One of the more straightforward possibilities has the Group F winners playing the Group C runners-up, with the Netherlands and Japan contesting one position and Brazil and Morocco the other.
The forecast gives the Netherlands a 63 percent chance of winning Group F and Morocco a 69 percent chance of finishing second in Group C. Three members of Morocco's squad, Noussair Mazraoui, Sofyan Amrabat and Anass Salah-Eddine were born in the Netherlands and came through the Dutch football system.
The Netherlands will want their full-backs, particularly Denzel Dumfries, advancing high enough to become auxiliary forwards, but Morocco's threat comes from exploiting those spaces, with Achraf Hakimi, Brahim Diaz and Ismael Saibari able to turn a defensive action into an attack. Morocco's draw with Brazil showed why this tie could be far from routine for the Netherlands.
Portugal vs Croatia: Ronaldo and Modric
Both countries would have to finish second for former Real Madrid teammates Ronaldo and Modric to face each other again, with Portugal in Group K and Croatia in Group L. That would follow their Nations League meeting in September 2024.
This is one of the less certain possibilities. The forecast gives Portugal a 35 percent chance of finishing second in their group, while Croatia are rated at 57 percent to do the same. Portugal their last meeting 2-1, with Ronaldo scoring the 900th goal of his career.
Ronaldo is 41 and Modric is 40. They spent six seasons together at Real Madrid and four Champions Leagues, but this could be their final meeting on the international stage. Portugal would have the deeper supporting cast, but their opening draw with DR Congo showed how their control of the ball can fail to produce chances. They had 75 percent possession and completed 783 passes in that match.
Featured names
- Sathire Kelpa
- Eurasia Sport
- Getty Images
- The Athletic
- Cristiano Ronaldo
- William Saliba
- Viktor Gyokeres
- Alexander Isak
- The Scandinavian
- Against Kylian
- Noussair Mazraoui
- Sofyan Amrabat
- The Netherlands
- Denzel Dumfries
- Achraf Hakimi
- Ismael Saibari
- Nations League
- Champions Leagues
- Kirin Challenge
- West Germany
- Just Fontaine
- Jamal Musiala
- Florian Wirtz
- Kjetil Rekdal
- Erling Haaland
- Martin Odegaard
- Diego Maradona
- Gonzalo Higuain
- Lionel Messi
